Egg-splosive Prices: What’s Driving the Surge

February 19, 2025

Written By Adam Buckallew

According to a recent report from CoBank, U.S. poultry and egg producers face unprecedented challenges as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) continues to threaten production. The egg industry has 8% fewer laying hens than three years ago, with over 100 million table-egg-laying hens affected through January 2025. In just the last three months (November 2024 through January 2025), 45 million birds have been affected, with 70% being table-egg layers.

The crisis comes amid surging consumer demand. Per capita egg consumption grew 20% from 2016 to 2019, reaching 300 eggs annually. This represents a significant shift from the stable consumption pattern of 255 eggs per capita seen in the early 2000s through 2012. The rise in consumption was partly driven by trends like all-day breakfast offerings and innovative egg-based menu items in restaurants.

Adding to market pressures is the growing demand for cage-free eggs. Over 120 million layers (40% of U.S. commercial flocks) are now in cage-free systems, up from just 30 million in 2015. Nine states, including California, have enacted laws requiring eggs sold to be from cage-free hens. These states’ combined populations would require more than 70 million cage-free laying hens, representing over 50% of the total U.S. cage-free flock as of October 2024.

The impact on prices has been dramatic. Historical consumer prices from the early 2000s through 2019 typically ranged between $1.00 and $2.00 per dozen. In 2024, average prices rose to $3.17 per dozen, a 13% increase year-over-year, with December prices reaching $4.15 per dozen. Wholesale egg prices surged even higher in January 2025, exceeding $7.00 per dozen in Midwest markets.

California illustrates the severity of the situation. Between November and December 2024, HPAI affected more than 9 million commercial egg-laying hens in the state. With approximately one laying hen needed per person to meet typical demand, California’s 39 million residents were already dependent on out-of-state production before this loss.

The outlook remains challenging. While total egg-laying hen inventories haven’t been substantially depleted since the current outbreak began, U.S. population growth means per capita supplies remain well below market demand. The expansion of specialty egg demand, including cage-free varieties, has further strained tight supplies. With HPAI continuing to affect production and Easter promotions approaching, prices are expected to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.