Market Commentary
Trump expects two to three weeks more of military action in Iran
April 2, 2026
The energy markets are closed tomorrow 4-3-2026 for Good Friday. So, there are no forward contracts tomorrow. Here is the DOE inventory data but at this point I am not sure this has an enormous impact on the markets as President Trump’s speech, and the conflict tin Iran are front […]
Risk of protracted war rises
March 30, 2026
The risk of protracted war with Iran grew on Saturday as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict, even as additional US forces reached the Middle East. The Houthis said they would continue their operations until the aggression on all fronts ended. […]
Conflict in Iran continues with traders eyeing $150 crude
March 27, 2026
It appears a quick resolution to this war in Iran is not going to happen. There are signs that some oil tankers are getting through the Strait of Hormuz, with a Thailand and Malaysia oil tanker allowed through, and Iran is receptive to oil being sent to Spain. However, the Strait […]
Trump administration to temporarily lift smog-cutting restrictions on gasoline
March 25, 2026
The API called crude oil supplies up 2.35 million barrels, gasoline supplies up 528,000 barrels, and distillates up 1.39 million barrels. There were reports last night that Israel has announced a 30-day ceasefire. Is this true? The market last night initially pulled back on crude oil, but overnight the selling […]
Trump backs off Iran ultimatum
March 24, 2026
Crude prices rose over the weekend as President Trump said on Saturday that Iran had just 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz or major power plants within Iran would be targeted. Iran responded with threats to attack energy infrastructure in the Gulf area if the US and Israel […]
Goldman Sachs expects elevated oil prices into 2027
March 20, 2026
US Secretary, Scott Bessent, said the US may soon remove sanctions from Iranian oil that is stranded on tankers to help lift global supplies and reduce prices. He said it is about 140 million barrels of oil. Axios reported that the Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade […]
Market transitioning from price shock to reality of shortages
March 19, 2026
The DOE inventory report had crude stocks up 6.16 million barrels, gasoline supplies were down 5.44 million barrels, and distillate were down 2.53. million barrels. Total crude stocks are now at 449.259 million and last year at this time they were 436.968 and the three-year average is 454.397. Total gasoline […]
Goldman Sachs expects crude barrels to average $98 through April
March 13, 2026
Late yesterday, the US issued a new general license related to Russia that allows the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels through April 11. Russia said this will affect about 100 million barrels of Russian oil. This news has helped pull prices back off their […]
Iran war is the “largest supply disruption in the history of global oil markets”
March 12, 2026
I am not sure right now any of these inventoried number matter as it is all about Iran and the war and the headlines, but at some point, they will matter. The DOE inventory report had crude oil up 3.82 million barrels to a total of 443.103, and last year […]
IEA calls for largest release of oil reserves to date
March 11, 2026
The API inventory estimates called crude oil down 1.689 million barrels, gasoline down 1.84, and distillates down 2.6. The average estimates for today’s DOE inventory numbers are crude oil up 2.643 million barrels, gasoline down 2.282, and distillated down 16,000. Energy markets have been extremely volatile as the markets react […]
Aramco warns of “catastrophic consequences” to prolonged war
March 10, 2026
Crude oil prices rose significantly on Sunday night when trading opened, with WTI reaching $119.48 in the first initial price surge on the open. Oil prices closed higher in yesterday’s trading but fell sharply off the highs. Prices crashed after the close on Monday due to President Trump stating in […]
Situation in Iran worsens, energy infrastructure under attack
March 9, 2026
The Iran situation continues to get worse and some of the things that have happened are worse than I ever thought so this is a surprise and prices have traded higher again as the uncertainty grows as this war continues. The Iran situation is front and center and it continues […]

