WTO Cuts Its Growth Forecast For Global Trade
October 2, 2019
The inventory report from the private firm API was released last night and it showed that crude oil stocks were down 5.9 million barrels. Gasoline stocks were up 2.1 million barrels and distillate stocks were down 1.7 million barrels. Stocks of crude oil at Cushing, Ok were up 373,000 barrels.
The outlook for today’s DOE inventory report from the Reuters survey estimates is that crude stocks will be up 1.6 million barrels, gasoline stocks will be up 449,000, and distillates stocks will down 1.8 million barrels.
The US EIA reported that Canada sent 366,290 bpd of crude by rail into the US in July, the highest level in six months, as Alberta continues to ease production curtailments.
The World Trade Organization cuts its forecast for growth in global trade this year by more than half and said further rounds of tariffs and retaliation, a slowing economy and disorderly Brexit could reduce global trade further. The WTO now expects global trade to increase by just 1.2% this year, versus its April estimate of a 2.6% growth rate.
US manufacturers reported the most widespread fall in business activity last month since the recession of 2009. The ISM purchasing manager’s index fell to 47.8 in September, well below the 50-point threshold dividing expanding activity from a contraction. US manufactures reported a widespread fall in new orders for the second month in a row, which point to furthest weakness in the months ahead. US private non-residential construction spending was down 2.8% in the three months June – August compared with same period last year, fastest decline since October – December 2017. When these numbers were released yesterday it created selling in the energy complex. This data raised the concerns for a global economic slowdown.
Propane stocks are currently in good shape and many traders think the market will see a build to stocks in this week’s report out later today. But there is a lot of curiosity and questions about crop drying and how that could impact demand this year. The weather had a big impact on planting this year and the harvest season maybe drawn out as a result and create a greater need for propane for crop dying. There are many factors that play into this just like in most all situations, and nobody knows how this will shake out. Supplies are good now and barring a very impressive cold and early start to winter, supplies should be comfortable for this winter season. But the chance for a heavy demand period when everyone wants propane creating a logistical situation is very possible. I bring this up to recommend that you save yourself from any issues and prepare for this now. Get your tank full and sign up to be a keep full customer to avoid any issues this year.
The average estimate for today’s propane inventory report is a build of 1.58 million barrels. The five-year average for this reporting week is a build of 1.12 million barrels.