Prices Retreat on OPEC Production Speculation
October 1st, 2019
Yesterday’s trading was a slow day other than the fact that it was expiration and that created flourish of activity around the “normal” close at 1:30 PM CST.
Prices retreat on the news OPEC + could and would increase production if needed by the market but until there is a real need from the market all OPEC + member are being called to strictly adhere to quotas, as OPEC + are the major players that are helping to keep the oil markets stable. September OPEC production at 28.9 million bpd down 750,000 bpd from a revise August number is the lowest monthly total since 2011.
On the other hand, in another report it said that Russia’s crude oil production exceeded its quota in September. Russia has been a bit more aggressive about pushing the limit of its quota and OPEC may have to try and rein them in a bit. Russia’s September production was reported at 11.24 and their quota is roughly 11.17.
EIA reported their monthly US crude production data yesterday and it showed the 3rd straight monthly fall in US crude oil production with July down to a total of 11.821 million bpd. US crude oil production reached a record high in April of 12.123 million bpd but has fallen for May through July. There is a 2-month lag in the monthly EIA oil production data, but it is said to be more accurate.
A lot of production data out yesterday and as mentioned above it does appear that production of oil globally is trending down for now. Currently many feel supplies are adequate and as mentioned about OPEC+ is ready to increase production when the it is warranted, and the market is not at that point yet.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) put out their final July 2019 gasoline demand numbers and it was the lowest demand level for July since 2015. Many suggested these numbers confirmed reports that the middle of the driving season was off a bit. EIA recorded a final July demand number of 9.484 million bpd. That was down 190,000 bpd from the previous month’s total of 9.674 million bpd and off 156,000 bpd from July 2018.
An Iranian government spokesman said Saudi Arabia has sent messages to Iran’s President, Hassan Rouhani, through the leaders of other countries. He stated that “if Saudi Arabia is really pursuing a change of behavior, Iran welcomes that.” Separately, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, aid Iran is ready to hold talks with other countries, particularly the UAE.
White House trade adviser, Peter Navarro, dismissed reports that the Trump Administration was considering delisting Chinese companies from the US stock exchanges as “fake news.” When asked in particular about a Bloomberg report on the matter, he said “over half of it was highly inaccurate or flat out false. “
OPEC’s Secretary General, Mohammed Barkindo, said Saudi Arabia has fully restored its oil output to pre-attack levels.