U.S. and Iranian negotiators meet at United Nations General Assembly
September 25, 2026
A US official said about 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday carrying the highest daily volume of crude oil since early July. The official said about 40 of those vessels coordinated with the US military for protection. A total of about 22 million barrels of oil exited the maritime chokepoint.
According to executives, traders and analysts, a possible US ban on diesel exports would initially cut domestic prices for the fuel but the effect is likely to be short-lived. Analysts said retail diesel prices would fall to $4.70 per gallon within 15 days from record highs above $6.50 per gallon. The export moratorium would push excess supplies toward the East Coast and West Coast, which sorely need the fuel. Meanwhile, distillate fuel stockpiles, now at their lowest-ever seasonal level, would be replenished. JPMorgan projects that they would reach the five-year average in two weeks and would reach 140 million barrels after 30 days, a level last seen in 2021. However, the economics would quickly make storage less attractive and squeeze profits, likely pushing refiners to process fewer barrels of crude oil and make fewer fuels of all kinds. According to Steven Barsamian, chief operating officer of The Tiger Tank, it would likely take only four to eight weeks for storage to fill on the Gulf Coast. Morgan Stanly analysts including Martijn Rats estimates it will take even less time, saying storage in the region would fill up within just three weeks before refineries slashed production.
US and Iran negotiators meeting on the side of the United Nation General Assembly are tossing out a phased in agreement to opening the Strait of Hormuz. This has been tried before. At this point I am not sure we can be optimistic, but there is always a chance. It feels like many are growing tired of all this, which may be a positive that something could happen with the Iran situation.
Crude prices are trading lower and, so is RBOB gasoline futures, but ULSD futures are a bit of a mixed bag at this point.