Is a diesel export ban a good idea?
September 24, 2026
The possibility of a diesel export ban concerns me. I’m worried if something does get implemented it will get messed up and have a wider negative impact as the attempt is to bring down diesel prices. It is estimated that in roughly two weeks an export ban would fill up storage, but what are the other markets and commodities that get mixed up in that ban. JPMorgan points out that the US refining system is built to serve the world not just the US domestic market, which is where the concerns lie longer term.
The DOE inventory report had crude oil supplies up to 2.97 million barrels, gasoline down 1.69 million, and distillates down 430,000 barrels.
Total crude oil supplies are 426.398, last year 414.754, and the 3-year average 414.644.
Total gasoline supplies are now at 206.046, last year 216.569, and the 3-year average 219.052.
Total distillates are now at 107.431, 122.999, and the 3-year average 121.995.
US propane inventories fell by 1.222 million barrels, total supplies at 107.870 million barrels. Last year 99.918, and the 5-year average is 91.118.
Midwest supplies were down 169,000 to a total of 26.090, last year 26.804, 5-year average 26.099. Midwest supplies are hanging at about that 26-million-barrel mark, which is nearly a full tank for that market, with the high being around 28 million.
Gulf Coast supplies were down 1.192 million barrels, putting total stocks at 68.434 million, last year 59.949, 5-year average 51.145. Propane supplies are still high, but exports were up 256,000 bpd day and that created a decline in inventories. If exports continue that will be the thing to eat into supplies and help support prices. The spread to other foreign markets is currently good so exports should continue but will that last longer term. That is a harder question in this volatile market environment with the potential for increased military action any day.