Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks fall to lowest level since 1983
June 16, 2026
According to data from the Department of Energy, stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 340.3 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983. Supplies are now less than half of the 714-million-barrel capacity. Inventories in the SPR fell by 8.9 million barrels last week, the third steepest decline on record. The drawdowns are a part of a US agreement to release 172 million barrels from the facility.
Citi cut its oil price forecast towards a previous bear case scenario, with new quarterly oil price forecasts for the third quarter at $75 per barrel and for the fourth quarter at $70 per barrel.
There is a ton of optimism around the Iran-US peace deal and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump keeps saying that the Strait will be open on Friday, but others in the shipping industry are much more cautious. It might be open on Friday, but that doesn’t mean ships will be moving. Many others stress that it will take time to allow for safe passage out of the strait. Reports have said that a few Iranian ships are moving to test the US blockade.
The forward curve for Middle East benchmark crudes Dubai and Murban has flipped into a contango (prices get higher as you move forward each month into the future), signaling a massive ease in supply expectations.
Optimism is high about this peace deal, and I hope that is correct. Vice President JD Vance said the deal with Iran is incentive-laden. If Iran does certain things, the funds will be released, or markets will be opened.