Big banks lower crude price forecasts
June 17, 2026
The average estimates for today’s inventory update from DOE report from the Bloomberg survey is crude oil supplies down 3.692 million, gasoline down 759,000 and distillates down 485,000.
The API inventory report called crude oil supplies down 8.33, gasoline up 2.47, and distillates down 416,000.
The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at the end of the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. The policy statement is likely to reflect growing concern about inflation brought on by the Iran war.
USA average retail gasoline prices fell below $4.00 per gallon for the first time since mid-April, as optimism grew that a preliminary deal between the US and Iran would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to GasBuddy data US national average retail gasoline prices fell to $3.997 per gallon on Sunday, though prices were at $4.065 on Monday, according to automotive group American Automotive Association.
A lot of the big investment banks are revising down their crude oil forecast. Goldman Sachs lowered its 4th quarter Brent crude oil forecast to $80 per barrel from $90 per barrel and cut its 2027 average estimate to $75 per barrel from $80.
Morgan Stanley lowered its Brent forecast for the third quarter to $90 from a previous $100. Its fourth quarter forecast is now down $15 per barrel to $80.
Barclays maintained its $100 per barrel forecast for Brent crude in 2026.
Commerzbank maintained its Brent crude price forecast of $85 per barrel for end of the year.
According to JPMorgan’s Research, it may take about 3 weeks for the backlog in the Strait of Hormuz to clear, followed by roughly 2 months for port normalization, and finally 4 months to return to pre-conflict production levels, – with Saudi Arabia and the UAE likely to bounce back well ahead of this timeline.