Iran ceasefire agreement is very fragile
April 10, 2026
John Kemp reports that North Sea Forties crude prices closed at a record $147 per barrel on April 9. Forties is one of the principal streams in the Brent complex, and prices have doubled since before the war between the United States and Iran broke out.
A JPMorgan research note reports that Saudi Arabia is now facing a 700,000-bpd supply outage following strikes along the East-West pipeline on pumping stations, multiple refineries and processing facilities. This outage adds to the 300,000 bpd already displaced and highlights the additional supply risk if the conflict escalates further.
The status of the ceasefire is very fragile, and there is still no clear answer on whether vessels are safe to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs cut its second-quarter 2026 forecast for Brent and US crude to $90 per barrel and $87 per barrel, respectively, after the US and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire. Previously, the bank had forecast Brent and WTI oil prices to average $99 per barrel and $91 per barrel, respectively.
ANZ said that oil supply disruptions have materially tightened the global crude oil balance, shifting the market rapidly from an early-year surplus to a sizable deficit. It said it sees a credible risk that 1-2 million bpd of capacity may be permanently lost or limited, particularly from mature fields, constrained export systems, and producers facing persistent sanctions or financial challenges. ANZ said the market is likely to require sustained prices above $100 per barrel to ration demand and prompt stock drawdowns, if recovery stalls at this week’s level, leaving deficits above 4-5 million bpd.
Kyodo reported that Japan is considering about 20 days’ worth of oil reserve for planned additional release as early as in May.