Ceasefire uneasiness permeates market
April 9, 2026
After yesterday’s huge sell-off prices are up today as there is a lot of uneasiness about the ceasefire. There is also confusion about whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or not and all this supports prices. Israel has continued its fighting with Hezbollah in Lebanon as they say the ceasefire doesn’t include the conflict in Lebanon.
SPR draws have begun and were down 250,000-barrel per day on the week. There was a large draw in diesel inventory with the Gulf Coast accounting for nearly all the draw, indicating export flows were a key factor. The US has been more sheltered than others in the current conflict and we have yet to see aggressive draws across all the petroleum complex. Expect SPR drawdowns to continue moving forward and higher export figures across the complex in the coming weeks.
The Short erm Energy Outlook is forecasting a major supply shortage for Q2, hitting a maximum of 7.15 million barrels in April. Prices are expected to stay supported for longer even with surpluses expected to return in Q of 2026.
Energy market got tanked yesterday as the news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran hit the new wires. This had the bulls taking profits and heading out the door. Can this ceasefire last and can they come to a deal. That is a long shot, so my guess is that some of the risk premium gets built back into the market.
The DOE inventory report called crude oil inventories up 3.08 million barrels, gasoline inventories down 1.59 million barrels, and distillate inventories down 3.104 million barrels.
Total crude oil inventories now sit at 464.717 and last year they were 442.345 and the 3-year average is 456.717.
Total gasoline inventories now sit at 239.272 and last year they were 235.977 and the three-year average is 228.918.
Total distillates inventories now sit at 114.681 and last year they were 111.082 and the three-year average is 113.752.
Propane inventories were up 570,000 barrels, putting total propane inventories at 77.596 million barrels. Last year inventory were at 45.651 million and the 5-year average is 46.207.
Midwest inventories were up 368,000 barrels putting total propane stocks at 14.946 and last year they were 9.581 million and the five-year average is 10.479.
Gulf Coast propane inventories we down 84,000 barrels putting total Gulf Coast stocks at 55.950 and last year they were 29.555 and the five-year average is 29.264.