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All Market Commentary

Citi Sets Short Term Crude Forecast at $80 Per Barrel

March 12, 2024

Crude prices were down in yesterday’s trading as oil supply disruption concerns and weak demand concerns for China ease. But product prices had a strong up move and gave technical traders some hope that prices have bounced from support and kept the bullish outlook in place.

Citi Research reiterated its 0–3-month price target of $80 per barrel for Brent while it updated its first quarter price forecast to $81 per barrel from a previous forecast of $78 per barrel.

The US, France, and Great Britain shot down dozens of drones in the Red Sea piloted by Yemen Houthis that targeted US destroyers, and the carrier Propel Fortune in the area on 3-10-2024.

China’s Defense Ministry said Chinese, Iranian and Russia navies will conduct joint maritime drills from March 11th 15th near the Gulf of Oman. The ministry said the drills are aimed at “jointly maintain regional maritime security”. It said China will send two guided missile warships and a supply ship to participate in the exercise.  

The EIA reported that US crude oil production lead global oil production for a sixth consecutive year, with a record-breaking average production of 12.9 million bpd. In December, US crude oil production reached a new monthly record high of over 13.3 million bpd. The EIA said it is unlikely that the record will be broken by another country in the near term.

S&P Global analysts are forecasting US crude oil production growth while slowing in 2024 will still reach 13.97 million bpd by December 2024. The analysts warned though if WTI prices fall below $65 per barrel for an extended period, producers may reduce the activity levels to protect their cash flows.

Headline CPI (Year over year ) Feb 3.2% vs. expected 3.1% January 3.1%.  Core CPI month over month for February 0.4% vs. expected 0.3% and January was 0.4%. Core CPI year over year for Feb 3.8% vs. expected 3.7% and January was 3.9%.

Chinese Fuel Imports Are Down
Market Expects Build in US Crude Inventory

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