Market Expects Build in US Crude Inventory
March 13, 2024
The API called crude oil inventories down 5.521 million barrels, gasoline inventories down 3.75 million barrels, and distillates down 1.16 million barrels.
The average estimate for today’s DOE inventory report from the Bloomberg survey is for crude to be up 307,000 barrels, gasoline down 1.620 million barrels and distillates down 704,000 barrels. The outlook for refinery utilization is for it to be up 0.9%.
The market is expecting the seventh straight build in US crude oil inventories this morning. The past six weeks have added almost 28 million barrels to the US stockpile; that has taken stocks from the low end of the past three years’ range to the midpoint, though still safely below year-ago levels.
The average estimate for today’s propane inventory update is for supplies to build 258,000 barrels. Over the last five years propane inventories have averaged a decline of 950,000 barrels during this reporting week, week 10 of the year.
OPEC maintained its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025 and further raised its economic growth forecast for this year saying there was more room for improvement. OPEC said world oil demand will increase by 2.25 million bpd in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025.
In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA reported that world petroleum demand is expected to increase by 1.43 million bpd to 102.43 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 1.38 million bpd to 103.8 million bpd in 2025.
Reports yesterday said Ukrainian drones continue to do damage to Russian refineries. Yesterday reports said Lukoil refinery was attacked by drone missiles. The refinery was on fire with what appeared to be major damage to the facility. This may be the news helping the market to be higher this morning.