US-Iran may finally have a deal to end war, reopen Strait of Hormuz
June 15, 2026
On Friday we had news of memorandum between US and Iran to halt the war and open the Strait of Hormuz, prices sold off on that news as traders took some profits. Over the weekend we were told a deal had been reached and it will be signed Friday June 19th in Switzerland and on that news the market sold off more to start this week.
The deal to end the war is the big news and will be the focus of traders as we start the new week. Even with the Strait of Hormuz open to more ship traffic the depletion of stockpiles will be the next thing to determine where prices are headed. Supplies from strategic reserves, salt caverns and other storage locations have been drawn down to critical levels after 100 plus days of the strait being closed. More supplies or higher prices are some of both might be needed to stop the inventory declines.
Reports say even if the US and Iran agree on a deal on Friday it may take a month or several months to clear out the threat of naval mines. The cleanup process could take up to 40 to 50 days. Then insurers and tanker operators would still need to feel safe that vessels can travel thought the strait without any issues. Currently there are roughly 20,000 seafarers and hundreds of ships still stranded in the Gulf. Although a handful of tankers have recently exited using “dark” transits and bilateral arrangements, daily traffic remains only a fraction of the pre-war average of 120-140 vessels. Industry leaders stress that creditable international safety assurances will be essential before meaningful volumes can resume.