Will the Israeli-Iranian Ceasefire Last?
June 26, 2025
The DOE inventory report called crude oil stocks down 5.84 million barrels, putting total stocks at 415.11 million barrels and last year there were 460.696 and the 3-year average is 443.317.
Gasoline supplies were down 2.08 million barrels, putting total stocks at 227.938 and last year there were 233.886 and the 3-year average is 225.833.
Distillate supplies were down 4.07 million putting total stocks at 105.332 and last year there were 121.263 and the 3-year average is 116.025.
Propane inventories showed another big build of 5.092 million barrels, putting total stocks at 72.615 million and last year there were 73.535 million and the 5-year average is 67.459.
Midwest stocks built by 1.352 million barrels put total stocks at 16.975 and last year there were 22.297 million and the 5-year average is 18.712.
Gulf Coast stocks were up 2.763 million putting total stocks at 46.227 million and last year they were 40.363 and the 5-year average is 38.905.
Energy markets have been caught up in all the news and unrest in the Middle East, and now with the ceasefire in place some of the fundamental items are being considered. Diesel is the one item that clearly could have supply concerns if demand stays good, but of course that is still an unknow as tariffs still loom large. The end of the 90-day grace period is rapidly approaching.
Will the ceasefire last or will unrest come again to the Middle East. This is a big question, and traders will be keeping an eye on all things in the Middle East.
The rally in prices on Monday did allow some of the oil producers to hedge their production for next year or so as prices rallied along the forward curve. The front few months got near or above 70 dollars, and the outer months got above 60 which would allow these companies to sell futures and lock in margins on future production. This may allow shale companies to continue producing if prices fall as they have lock in margins and keep US production up and keep some pressure on prices.