White House Economic Advisor Warns Against More Viral Lockdowns
July 9th, 2020
The inventory report had crude oil stocks up 5.65 million barrels and the stocks at Cushing, Ok were up 2.21 million barrels. The build in crude was helped by crude imports being up 1.425 million bpd to a total of 9.975 million barrels. Gasoline stocks were down 4.84 million barrels and distillates were up 3.14 million barrels. Gasoline rallied on the big stock decline, but prices are still stuck in a range and have not broken out. Gasoline is testing the upper limits of its range but appears that it will need some help to break out. I know that the recovery is better than expectations and the stimulus is helping but despite a 4 million barrel decline in stocks the market still sit with 22.495 million more barrels of gasoline than last year at this time. Distillates has an even bigger overhang as total stocks sit at 177.262 million barrels a 37 year high and currently 46.745 million more barrels than last year at this time. Fundamentally there is still a glut of refined fuel products. Refinery runs also increased up 2.00% to 7.50% of total capacity. Refinery inputs were up 216,000 bpd to a total of 13.955 million barrels
Propane inventory was up 2.224 million barrel with the Midwest up 842,000 barrels and the Gulf Coast up 1.201 million barrels. Total stocks are at 76.823 million barrels which is 4.535 million more barrels than last year. Assuming production continues along in reasonable fashion the market should end the stock building season with plenty of inventory. The inventory levels will likely test near 90 million barrels as we end the propane inventory building period over the next roughly 12 weeks. Midwest total stocks are at 19.276 million barrels 2.168 million barrels less than last year at this time. The Gulf Coast has 46.008 million barrels 2.692 million barrels more than last year at this time.
EIA reported yesterday that total US gasoline product supplied ( implied demand) rose last week by 205,000 bpd up to a total of 8.766 million bpd for the week ending July 3rd. However, US gasoline implied demand is still down by 12.5% over the past four weeks versus last year and down by 15.5% based upon a cumulative daily average versus last year.
EIA reported that total distillate product supplied fell by 758,000 bpd down to a total of 3.019 million bpd for the week ending July 3rd. US distillate demand is now down by 10.3% over the past four weeks versus last year and down by 10.6% based upon a cumulative daily average versus last year.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, said the economy would likely suffer some impacts as certain US states reimpose coronavirus-related restrictions, but added that imposing another nationwide shutdown would be “a big mistake.” He added that he has seen no evidence of a so-called double-dip recession as some financial analysts have suggested as more states reported record numbers of new infections.