We are nearing the average date for the seasonal ULSD low
December 13, 2024
The bulls had a nice day yesterday, and prices rebounded, but the question remains: have the bulls done enough? The answer so far is no, but the resistance levels that, if broken, would open a more bullish outlook in the longer term are close. But this could also be an area that stops the rally and prices again trade lower into the end of the year and keep these markets all balled up in a range. The next few days will hopefully shed light on where we are headed, but these markets have frustrated many for a while now, so we will have to wait and see.
In terms of the seasonal bottoming window for these markets, we are getting into the prime time for that to be a real possibility, and that warrants our attention as well. The ten-year average date for the seasonal low in ULSD is December 31.
Energy prices have been supported this week by both the EU and the US have intentions to increase sanctions on Russia and possibly Iran, the fall of the Syrian Assad government and OPEC+ continuing to hold back barrels from the market. Increase activities between Russia and Ukraine has also put some buying into the oil markets. Reports said Russia fired roughly 200 drones and almost 90 missiles at Ukraine yesterday.