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All Market Commentary

Valero Energy Reports 86% Decline in Q3 Profits

October 25, 2024

In yesterday’s trading it was a pretty uneventful day for energy prices. Prices were a bit softer as there were rumblings about the potential of a cease fire. That news is off the table today and prices have bounced back but as has been said prices are still stuck in a tight trading range and just waiting.

Crude oil has traded in a $3.50 cent range for much of this week, settling yesterday at a touch over $70 per barrel.

Valero Energy posted an 86% decline in third-quarter profits on declining refining margins. The company’s refining margins stood at $2.40 billion in the quarter, compared with $5.41 billion last year. Valero’s refining segment reported operating income of $565 million for the third quarter, compared with $3.4 billion a year earlier.

Energy prices are higher as we start out this Friday as traders worry about a wider conflict in the Middle East and cover their positions for the weekend. These ongoing concerns in the Middle East offer support to prices. On the other had traders worry that the outlook for demand is not good and that limits the upside, and these things keep the market stuck just buying time.

According to Rory Johnston from Commodity Context, in the latest deep dive on global petroleum inventories OPEC’s upcoming decision in November may be a wildcard. OPEC tends to use inventories and pictures of the global market supply to guide its production decision. While visible onshore commercial crude stocks are low– significantly below seasonal averages — refine product stocks, barrels at sea and China’s petroleum reserve tell a different story. Onshore crude stocks remain tight, supporting a potential easing of cuts, but refined products inventories are ample, potentially justifying ongoing OPEC+ caution.

Russian fuel exports are expected to come in at their lowest level in nearly two years, according to data from Vortexa.

EIA estimates gas will average $3.20 in 2025
US crude production hits all-time high

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