US oil production poised to grow
February 12, 2025
The API inventory report called crude oil stocks up 9.043 million barrels, gasoline supplies down 2.507 million and distillates down 590,000.
The average estimates from the Bloomberg survey from today’s DOE inventory update are calling crude oil up 2.516 million barrels, gasoline up 545,000 and distillates down 1.478 million.
The average estimate for today’s propane inventory update is for supplies to be down 2.9 million barrels.
OPEC’s Secretary general, Haitham Al Ghais, said decisions made by OPEC take a long-term view of the global markets and are aimed at providing price stability. The comments came after US President Donald Trump repeatedly called on OPEC to increase oil prodctuion to help reduce prices.
Trade sources said Saudi Arabia’s crude oil supply to China is set to fall in March from the prior month after it increased its prices to the highest level in more than two years.
The EIA reported in its Short Term Energy Outlook ( STEO) that world oil output in 2025 is forecast at 104.6 million bpd, up 200,000 bpd from the previous estimate, while output in 2026 is forecast to increase by 1.6 million bpd, which is up 300,000 bpd from a previous estimate.
US oil production is poised to set a larger record this year than previous estimates. It said it now expects US crude oil production to average 13.59 million bpd in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 13.55 million bpd.
The EIA sees US oil demand in 2025 at 20.5 million bpd, unchanged from a previous forecast and is expected to increase by 100,000 bpd to 20.6 million bpd in 2026. Its 2026 oil demand forecast was up from a previous estimate of 20.5 million bpd. The EIA sees 2025 world oil demand at 104.1 million bpd, unchanged from a previous estimate and demand in 2026 is forecast to increase to 105.2 million bpd, up 105,000 bpd from a previous forecast.
The EIA sees WTI averaging $70.62 per barrel in 2025, up from a previous forecast of $70.31 per barrel and its 2026 forecast at $62.46 per barrel, unchanged from the previous forecast. The 2025 price of Brent crude is forecast at $74.50 per barrel, up from a previous forecast of $74.31 and the 2026 price at $66.46 per barrel unchanged from a previous forecast.