US-Iran war concerns provide bullish momentum to energy markets
February 19, 2026
The average estimate for today’s DOE inventory report from the Bloomberg survey are crude oil up 298,000 barrels, gasoline down 1.221 million barrels and distillate down 1.914 million barrels.
The API inventory report called crude oil down 609,000 barrels, gasoline down 312,000, and distillates down 1.57 million barrels.
The headlines have ramped up the tensions between the US and Iran, and this has rallied prices and put a war premium into the market again. The potential for a war between the US and Iran and the fact that Russia and Ukraine have made little progress is pushing the bullish narrative and prices are on the move higher. The bulls needed an up day yesterday and they got it so now the market is likely to run higher and test resistance.
Commentaries this morning are warning that the rally in price has been all about geoportal activities and most specifically the US and Iran and if there are reports that negotiation are improving or tensions are lessening then the market could retreat right back to where this all started. The headlines, mostly on Iran will be a key factor in what drives prices here in the near term.
The 5-year average for propane this reporting week is a draw of 3.534 million barrels. Today we are likely to get that number or better on the inventory report as the impacts of winter storm Fern is still showing up.
The Iranian semi-official Fars new agency reported that Iran and Russia will conduct navy drills in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean today, a few days after Revolutionary Guards conducted military drills in the Strait of Hormuz. There seems to be a lot of saber rattling going on and that has rallied prices.
Phillips 66 and Citgo Petroleum are seeking to buy heavy crude directly from Venezuela’s PDVSA starting in April to maximize profits, rather than purchase through trading houses and US oil major Chevron.