US-EU trade deal optimism buoys markets
July 30, 2025
The average estimates for today’s DOE inventory report update from the Bloomberg survey are for crude oil stocks to decline 1.979 million barrels, gasoline stocks down 973,000 barrels and distillates up 17,000 barrels.
The API inventory report from yesterday afternoon called crude oil up 1.73, gasoline down 1.73 and distillates up 4.189 million barrels.
Energy markets were still supported today by the optimism from the US EU trade deal, especially the clause to buy $750 billion of energy products over three years. President Trump moving up the deadline on Russia to make a peace deal with Ukraine also put some juice into prices yesterday. Despite yesterday’s rally prices are still in their ranges. It might take something like President Trump putting the secondary sanctions on Russia to take this market higher but if it does the questions will be is this just a short term run up and then a selloff or will the bulls be able to sustain a rally over time as it is really based on fear at this point in the near term.
Crude oil prices rose by more than 3.5% yesterday which was mainly an extension of prior day’s rally after news of the U.S. and EU trade/tariff deal. New information yesterday boosted prices much higher after President Trump said he intends to impose tariffs and other sanctions against Russia ten days from yesterday, 07/29/25. Russia oil and fuel exports are expected to decline in 10 days.
Also bullish for oil and fuel demand, U.S. consumer sentiment for July rose much more than expected up to a reading of 97.2 from 95.2 in Jun. Economists expected a rise up in the index to only 95.8.
The estimate for today’s propane inventory update is to see a build to supplies of 2.6 million barrels.