US consumer confidence continues to fall as tariffs take effect
March 5, 2025
The average estimates for today’s DOE inventory update from the Bloomberg survey are for crude oils stocks to be up 192,000 barrels, gasoline down 175,000 barrels, and distillates up 1.078 million barrels.
The average estimate for today’s propane update is to see propane inventories fall by 2.44 million barrels.
The API inventory estimates came out yesterday afternoon. They called crude oil stocks down 1.46 million barrels, gasoline stocks down 1.25 million barrels, and distillates up 1.14 million barrels.
The US consumer sentiment continues to decline amid the ongoing economic uncertainty, with yesterday’s RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index falling back into pessimistic territory for the first time since October with a 49.8 reading. The biggest decline in yesterday’s report was in the six-month economic outlook, which fell by 9.6% month-on-month in March down to 46.2.
The general outlook is that the tariffs will be bearish for the economy and demand. However, some producers in Canada have already lowered oil production due to the tariffs which could led to shortages. This is of course an ongoing situation that traders will be watching.
Energy prices did bounce off the lows yesterday as traders tried to digest more OPEC barrels and tariffs. The weaker US dollar appeared to support energy prices as the dollar index fell to a two-month low.
The news from OPEC to bring back more barrels is seen in their eyes as needed as the outlook is that demand growth right now is still seen as good but has come into question in just the last few days, and they see the potential for lost barrels from Iran as Trump has said he wants Iran oil off the market.