Ukrainian drone strike shuts down large Russian refinery
October 7, 2025
Reports surfaced that Saudi Arabia wanted to raise oil output by as much as 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), but other OPEC+ members opted to maintain lower production targets.
Adding downward pressure on prices is the fact that refineries are entering their maintenance season in the fourth quarter, coinciding with a softer demand outlook.
In Russia, the Kirishi refinery, one of the country’s largest, was shut down following a Ukrainian drone strike that caused a fire. Early reports suggest the facility could remain offline for a month. Russia has already been limiting refined fuel exports due to repeated attacks on energy infrastructure and other war-related disruptions, which could further constrain its revenues.
According to Baker Hughes, the U.S. crude oil rig count declined by two rigs.
UBS forecasts Brent crude will trade between $60 and $70 per barrel, noting that global oil demand has likely peaked for the year and is expected to gradually decline in the months ahead. While the OPEC+ production quota increase for November stands at 137,000 bpd, UBS estimates that actual additions will total only 60,000 to 70,000 bpd, as several members have been overproducing and must now adjust their output. The bank anticipates slightly lower oil prices by year-end as market supplies improve, but it maintains a more constructive outlook for mid-2026 and beyond, expecting moderate non-OPEC+ supply growth and continued demand expansion into 2027.
HSBC’s forecast remains in line with UBS, holding its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent assumption at $65 per barrel. The bank warns of downside risk if OECD inventories rise but disagrees with the view that Saudi Arabia is the only country with spare capacity. HSBC expects output increases from the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait.
Meanwhile, Vortexa data shows that the total amount of oil in transit worldwide has climbed to 1.2 billion barrels—the highest level since at least 2016.