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All Market Commentary

Ukraine hits two Russian oil distribution facilities

September 24, 2025

Kyiv’s general staff said Ukraine’s military struck two Russian oil distribution facilities in the Bryansk and Samara regions overnight. In Samara, the military hit a line production station that mixes Russian oil for its flagship Urals oil grade for export. In Bryansk, it hit a line production station of a pipeline critical for Russian army supplies. The Financial Times reported yesterday that Ukraine’s recent drone activities have impact Russian oil refining by nearly 20%, on certain days, and reduced Russia’s diesel exports towards their lowest levels since 2020.

The OECD said global growth is holding up better than expected, but the full impact of the US import tariff shock is still be felt.

US Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, Raphael Bostic, said inflation risks are still in play in the US economy.

The API inventory numbers from yesterday call crude oil supplies down 3.82 million barrels, gasoline supplies down 1.05, and distillates up 518,000 barrels.

The average estimates for today’s DOE inventory update from the Bloomberg survey are from crude stocks to be up 690,000, gasoline down 738,000, and distillates up 60,000.

The estimate for today’s propane inventory update is for stocks to build up by 1.4 million barrels. Over the last five years the average has been a 742,000-barrel build for this reporting week.

Crude oil was supported higher yesterday when news hit that a deal to export crude from Iraq’s Kurdistan region through a Turkish pipeline appear to collapse.  The market was estimating roughly 230,000 bpd would be coming to the market with this deal and adding to the outlook for an oversupplied market.

Citi forecasts $60 crude oil pricing
North Dakota oil output trends downward

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