U.S. elections may impact Trump’s Iran strategy
November 3, 2026
Well, we got a one-day reprieve. The energy market was down hard yesterday but managed to hold above several key support levels. News that peace talks were making progress dominated the headlines, and the market sold off sharply in response. The timing was convenient, as the news hit the wires and prices dropped hard on the day before the election.
Markets were higher in early trading today following reports of U.S. military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. described the action as a defensive strike against Qeshm Island in response to Iran firing on a U.S. aircraft. Iran also attacked a commercial vessel, but U.S. forces successfully defended it. Prices moved higher as the market added some risk premium in response to the latest developments in the strait. Headlines will continue to drive prices in the near term, while several longer-term factors remain a concern for these markets.
The elections are today, and many market participants view them as a deadline for potential action in the Middle East. Whether that means further military action or progress toward peace, there is a general expectation that something could happen over the next 24 hours. The election outcome could also influence the current administration’s plans moving forward.
JPMorgan Refined Products Trading believes the timing and likelihood of a potential U.S. attack on Iran have shifted later and lower than previously expected, making action this week less likely. Following the midterms, President Trump may conclude that time is on his side and that the economic blockade is working, particularly while oil flows remain normal. That could favor patience over further escalation. With neither diplomacy nor military pressure producing a clear resolution, the administration may have more incentive to remain patient and turn its attention elsewhere following the election.