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All Market Commentary

Trump backs off Iran ultimatum

March 24, 2026

Crude prices rose over the weekend as President Trump said on Saturday that Iran had just 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz or major power plants within Iran would be targeted. Iran responded with threats to attack energy infrastructure in the Gulf area if the US and Israel targeted its power plants with missiles.  On Monday, President Trump said he was delaying for 5 days the strike on power plants in Iran due to constructive talks with the Iranian leadership to resolve fighting in the Middle East. This news crashed the market and put it into a substantial correction. The crazy thing is that no key support levels have been broken, so for now, this is just a pullback in an overbought market, and the upside risk is still big.

Iran’s parliament speaker, of course, denied that there were any talks with the US. And called it fake news. 

The uncertainty about the duration, outcome, and objectives of the conflict in the Middle East has boosted intra-day volatility to the highest levels on record outside the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

India’s Reliance Industries, operator of the world’s biggest refining complex, has purchased 5 million barrels of Iranian crude, days after the US temporarily removed sanctions on the oil, three sources familiar with the matter said, according to Bloomberg.

Crude oil had an $18-dollar range yesterday and heating oil had an 83 cents range. That is a very volatile day.

Also, an interesting note. Five minutes before the president made his announcement about the 5-day grace period, someone came out and bought a billion dollars’ worth of S&P futures, and at the same time someone shorted a billion dollars of crude oil futures. Not at all sketchy.

Goldman Sachs expects elevated oil prices into 2027
Trump administration to temporarily lift smog-cutting restrictions on gasoline

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