Trump and Putin to meet in Budapest, discuss Ukraine
October 17, 2025
The DOE reported crude oil stocks were up 3.52 million barrels, gasoline stocks were down 270,000 barrels, and distillates stocks were down 4.53 million barrels.
Total crude stocks now sit at 423.785 million and last year there were 420.550 and three-year average is 425.885. Inventories are at the lower end of the three-year range, but most outlooks are calling for more barrels from OPEC+ to soon appear and create a surplus over demand by the end of the year.
Total gasoline supplies are now 218.826 million and last year they were 212.697, and the three-year average is 215.122. Supplies are in the upper tier of the three-year average range and appear to be in decent shape.
Distillates supplies are now at 117.030 and last year they were 114.979 and the three-year average is 111.646. Supplies are above the three-year average range and above last year at this time. They are in good shape for now as the market has seen harvest demand hit and in progress.
Propane inventories were up 1.875 million barrels, putting total stocks at 102.376 million, with the five-year average for this time of year being at 93.4 million barrels. 102.376 for the second week of October is the second-highest level for this week on record. Propane exports were reported at 2.134 million bpd, the 10th-highest weekly total on record, with all entries in the Top Ten taking place in the last 18 months.
President Trump said he will meet with Russia’s President Putin in Budapest to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This give the market some hope that increased supplies of crude could be forthcoming from Russia. I would not give too big of odds on this as we all know how the meeting and talks seem to go with a lot of hype and hope and not much actual action. Russia exports or refined fuels have fallen to their lowest level since the early days of the war.
There has been reports that India has pledged to stop purchasing crude oil from Russia but no confirmation from India on any of these comments so take it with a grain of salt.
The Cboe Volatility Index, widely regarded as the market’s “fear gauge,” climbed above 27 early in today’s trading. This marks the highest level since April, as investors’ anxiety spiked amid concerns over the US economy. Loan defaults at two regional banks fueled worries and prompted traders to take profits.