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All Market Commentary

Traders lose confidence in Ukraine-Russia peace talks

August 26, 2025

Traders are beginning to lose confidence that the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will lead to peace. If peace cannot be reached, then the US will increase sanctions on Russian oil, and this is a bullish factor.  Countries like India who are buying Russian crude oil will have to decide which is more important buying discounted Russian crude oil or trading with the US. The thought is that increasing sanctions will tighten up crude supplies and support prices.

Offering support to prices yesterday was the recent attacks by Ukraine on Russia’s energy infrastructure. A pipeline was hit that exports crude to Hungary and Slovakia.

The market is also supported by the outlook that the Fed will cut interest rates one more time before the end of the year and lower interest rates are positive for the economy and energy demand. Ongoing support to prices from the war and the expected interest rate cut is positive for energy prices but additional barrels from OPEC+ and the outlook for an oversupplied market is a drag. Prices will continue to trade in a range looking for some change to any of these factors or some item of clarity with these issues before the next big move or the start of a new trend begins. 

IIR Energy said BP’s 440,000 bpd refinery in Whiting, Indiana, is expected to be fully operational in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Trucking activity is relatively flat since March
Energy prices finding support to start September

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