Supply and Demand to Balance by June?
May 27th, 2020
Bjornar Tonhaugen of Rystad Energy says supply and demand may balance sooner than expected. The market is currently oversupplied by 16 million barrels per day in crude and that could be reversed altogether by June according to Tonghaugen. A 4-million-barrel-per-day recovery in crude demand and a 12-million-barrel-per-day cut in crude supply would be enough to balance the equation. Russia also seems to be getting on bandwagon of trying support crude oil prices. The energy markets have had a nice rally and are now trading sideways at the top of the range. The bulls will need to push the price higher if it is going to break out of its current trend. The market is likely in for weeks of sideways congestion if the bulls are unsuccessful
Genscape reports crude stocks held in Cushing, Okla. fell by 3,440,583 barrels in the week ending Tuesday, May 19.
News from OPIS
Personal travel in the United States is increasing. Research firm Inrix says US personal travel data during the week of May 22 increased the most for the 10 weeks of the COVID-19 period (beginning in late February), with Memorial Day weekend travel likely helping trim six percentage points from the previous week’s 25% deficit. Many states have removed or phased out the stay-at-home orders put in place by states to slow the spread of COVID-19. Personal travel rebounded across all states. Eight states have seen travel increase by more than 10% compared to the previous week.
President Trump weighed in on the Chinese government’s consideration of a new national security law for Hong Kong that would crack down on opposition. He stated that the US would react ”strongly” against any moves against Hong Kong by China. There are concerns about tension between US and China rising. Any strain in the relationship may impact trade negotiations.
The IEA is forecasting that global energy investment will decline around 20% in 2020. Investment in oil and gas specifically is forecast to fall by almost 33%. IEA expects the global supply of oil in 2025 will reduce by almost 9 million barrels a day. The investment cutbacks are what could fuel the next shortage as demand will recover before supply can catch up over the long term. Fatih Birol, IEA executive director, said, “The historic plunge in global energy investment is deeply troubling for many reasons. Its means lost jobs and economic opportunities today, as well as, lost energy supply that we might well need tomorrow once the economy recovers. The slowdown in spending on key clean energy technologies also risks undermining the much-needed transition to more resilient and sustainable energy systems.”