Selling pressure mounts on crude and fuel
April 29, 2025
Crude oil and refined fuel prices remain under some selling pressure here this morning. The trade war between China and the US is one of the main items putting pressure on prices because this is seen as impacting demand growth negatively. One of the other items is OPEC+ saying they will increase prodctuion in May. OPEC+ is also meeting on May 5th to discuss their thoughts on June production. The ongoing challenge for OPEC+ is trying to place more barrels into a market that is not really in need of them. The bearish factors continue to be these additional OPEC+ barrels and the outlook for lower demand as well as other factors that are bearish for prices. The Iran nuclear talks are one of the bullish factors. Right now, it is being reported that progress is positive but if negotiations turn bad and more sanctions are placed on Iran this will be supportive to prices.
Iran’s oil minister said he is extremely cautious about success of a nuclear deal between the US and Iran. Barclays lowered its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast by $4 dollars per barrel to $70 dollars per barrel. It expects Brent to average $62 dollars per barrel in 2026. The bank projects a surplus of 1 million bpd this year and 1.5 million bpd in 2026. It warned that the market’s “limited shock-absorption” could leave price vulnerable in the near term.