Reuters survey respondents expect global oil market pressure in 2026
January 6, 2026
UBS said the outlook for Venezuela remains highly uncertain with short term risk to oil production skewed to the downside. It said that over the next 12 months, it does not expect any significant impact on global oil markets balances. UBS forecast global oil demand to increase by about 1.2 million bpd in 2026, while non-OPEC+ supply is expected to increase by about 800,000 bpd. It forecast Bent crude price for 2026 at $62 per barrel at the end of the first quarter, $65 at mid-year and $67 at the end of year.
Morgan Stanely estimates an oil market surplus of 1.9 million bpd in 2026. It sees Brent falling to the mid-$50s by mid-2026. It sees a global surplus peaking in mid-2026, with little sequential growth in both OPEC and non-OPEC supply. It sees demand growth steadily eroding the surplus by late 2027.
According to a Reuters survey, the global oil market is likely to be under pressure in 2026 as increasing supply and weak demand cut prices, and traders monitor OPEC+ for policy signals and any attempts to bolster the market.
On Sunday OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged following a quick meeting that avoided discussion of the political crisis affecting several of the producer groups’ members.