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All Market Commentary

Poland responds to Russian drone incursion

September 22, 2025

The energy markets continue to keep a watch on a list of concerns from the ongoing conflicts around the globe to a host of economic concerns.

From John Kemp: The market continues to digest geopolitical issues from last week. Over the weekend, Poland deployed fighter jets in response to Russia’s large drone and missile attack against Ukraine. President Trump continues to urge EU nations to cease their purchases of Russian oil as the newest sanctions package neglects to mention it.

On Friday, India announced it would continue to buy Russian crude through the end of the year, citing increased fuel demand.

Currently, the market has not seen any major impact of sanctions reducing Russian crude oil exports, which is a weight on prices. This situation still supports the narrative from most analysts that crude will be oversupplied in the back half of 2025 and into 2026.

Baker Hughs reported that oil rigs were up 2 to a total of 418. The oil rig count has risen four straight weeks. 15% of active rigs were reduced during the spring – summer time frame.

Investors resumed buying petroleum futures and options contracts last week as interest rates reduction in the major economies spurred hopes for faster growth in consumption and a short-covering rally.

Fed cuts interest rates. More cuts to come?
Citi forecasts $60 crude oil pricing

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