Market Commentary
IMF Warns Inflation and War Could Push Global Economy to Brink of Recession
July 27, 2022
The API report estimated crude stocks down 4 million barrels, gasoline stocks down 1.1 million barrels and distillates stocks down 554,000 barrels. The International Monetary Fund cut global growth forecast again on Tuesday, warning the downside risks from high inflation and the Ukrainian war were materializing and could push the […]
Nord Stream 1 Flow Reductions Prompt Questions of Russian Retaliation for Sanctions
July 26, 2022
Gazprom has reduced rates on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% of normal after the restart from maintenance just a few days ago. The line was first at 40% but is now cut back to 20% because Gazprom says they are waiting on a turbine that was repaired in […]
White House Advisor Urges Discontinuation of Releases from Strategic Petroleum Reserve
July 25, 2022
US crude oil inventories are 6% below the five year average, gasoline inventories are 3% below the five year average, and distillates are 23% below the five year average. Propane inventories are currently 16% below the five year average. The Baker Hughes Rig Count had oil rigs unchanged on the […]
European Central Banks Raise Rates for First Time in 11 Years
July 22, 2022
The energy markets were down hard in early trading but did rally back off their lows. WTI crude oil settled $1.76 off its low. RBOB gas was $0.1246 cents off its low of the day and ULSD was $0.1673 cents of its low of the day. Lower demand, concerns about […]
US Home Builder Confidence Wanes
July 19, 2022
Crude oil inventories at Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for the NYMEX WTI futures contracts, are at 21.6 million barrels, the lowest seasonal level since 2014. Stocks have not been this low since 2008, when front-month WTI crude prices were at $122 (or $170 per barrel adjusted for inflation). Energy […]
Recession Fears Weight on Market Despite Limited Supplies
July 18, 2022
President Joe Biden met with officials from Saudi Arabia on Friday, and the bottom line is that it did not yield any action to produce more crude oil. This has again increased the concerns about supply and should offer some support to prices. Of course, both sides are reporting a […]
Fed Likely to Remain Aggressive Against Blistering Inflation
July 14, 2022
The EIA inventory report said that crude oil stocks were up 3.25 million barrels, gasoline stocks up 5.83 million barrels and distillates up 2.67 million barrels. Builds across the board is a welcome thing but take the over six million barrels SPR release and crude stocks over all are down. […]
Biden Will Travel to Middle East to Ask for More Oil
July 13, 2022
The average estimates for today’s EIA inventory update are calling for crude oil supplies to be down 469,000 barrels, gasoline supplies down 1.008 million barrels and distillate supplies up 792,000 barrels. The API inventory report put out yesterday said that crude oil stocks were up 4.8 million barrels, gasoline stocks […]
OPEC Expects Oil Demand to Grow in 2023
July 12, 2022
With the Federal Reserve expected to keep raising interest rates, open interest in NYMEX futures fell on July 7 to its lowest level since October 2015 as investors cut back on risky assets. Speculative longs have liquidated about 20% of their positions. The next round of the Consumer Price Index […]
Russia Prepares Shutdown of Nord Stream 1 Natural Gas Pipeline
July 11, 2022
The Baker Hughes Rig Count had oil rigs up 2 to a total of 597 and last year at this time there were 378 oil rigs. Oil rigs are at their highest level since March 2020. WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose significantly on Friday by 2.0% or more […]
Energy Prices Under Pressure From Recession Fears
June 23, 2022
The DOE inventory report will not come out today. The EIA announced that due to technical issues the report will not be released. There is some debate about whether this report gets updated later or if we just get a report next week. Until the “technical issues” are resolved we […]
AAA Expects Record US Travel Over July 4 Weekend
June 22, 2022
AAA expects a record 42 million people in the US to take to the open road over the July 4th holiday weekend. If their projections are correct, 2022 would outpace 2019 when holiday travel was 41.5 million people. The outlook for this year comes despite the fact that gas prices […]