OPEC votes to increase crude production
October 6, 2025
OPEC+ decided to increase production in November by 137,000 bpd, the same as they did for this month. The market was looking for something more liked 500,000 bpd and that had helped the market sell off last week but a less than expected increase has crude up this morning.
The less than expected increase diminishes the chances for an oversupplied market in 2026.
Last week, Ukraine increased its drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, and reports say they hit a refinery. In response, Russia launched its largest air attack since the beginning of the war and targeted natural gas infrastructure. The market has baked a lot of the most significant conflict into prices and will likely not have a big move unless some major port or some key midstream asset is hit and it disrupts supplies or production.
China and India continue to be buyers of crude. That has helped support prices and diminished the outlook for an oversupplied market.
The EU announced it will be phasing out Russian oil and gas on a faster schedule and will be voting on amendments to RePowerEU.