OPEC+ tries to regain market share with production increases
November 5, 2025
The API numbers for energy inventories called crude oil supplies up 6.52 million barrels, gasoline down 5.65 million, and distillates down 2.46 million.
The average estimates for today’s DOE inventory report from the Bloomberg survey are for crude oil stocks to be down 657,000 barrels, gasoline down 1.076 million and distillates down 1.982 million.
The estimate for the propane inventory report is to have inventories increase by 250,000 barrels.
According to a Reuters survey, OPEC’s oil output increased further in October following an OPEC+ agreement to raise production. OPEC produced 28.43 million bpd in October, up 30,000 bpd from September’s total, with Saudi Arabia and Iraq making the largest increase.
HSBC said OPEC+ is focused on regaining market share and the bank expects oil output quota increases to accelerate in the second and third quarters of 2026.
Market sources said Iraq has cancelled the loading of three crude oil cargoes from Lukoil in November, citing concerns over US and UK sanctions on the Russian oil major.
Private payrolls added 42,000 jobs in October, more than expected and much better than the decline of 29,000 last month. This provides hope that the labor market is stable and not getting worse.
Bloomberg reported that a number of Indian refiners are returning to their traditional suppliers. During the psst week, four Indian processors that used to take more than half of India’s imports of Russian oil have said they’ll stop all purchases due to US and UK restrictions.
Crude supplies stored in tankers is an indication that US sanctions against Iran and Russia may be working. Marco Dunand, the CEO of Mercuria, says that the crude surplus could be 2 million bpd in 2026 but, if sanctions continue to work, it could drop closer to a million-bpd surplus.