OPEC+ not hitting production targets
September 26, 2025
Crude oil and fuel prices closed mixed in yesterday’s trading. The Bureau of Economist Analysis reported that the final estimate for Q2 2025 GDP came in at 3.8%, which was much higher than the 3.3% expected and above the expected range (3.3%,3.5%). The BEA reported that consumer spending came in at 2.5%, which was much higher than the 1.6% expected.
Bearish for prices was news that the Kurdistan Regional Government announced yesterday that oil exports would resume within 48 hours with a deal in place between Iraq’s oil ministry, the Kurdistan ministry of natural resources and production companies. This should help bring more barrels to the market as so far, the OPEC+ group has not been able to meet its new targets.
According to a Reuters analysis of OPEC+ data, between April and August, the group delivered only 75% of the planned production increase, producing almost 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) below the targeted increase of 1.921 million bpd for that period. Data beyond August is not yet available.
NATO has concluded that Russia’s incursion into Estonia’s airspace was not an accident and has said it is prepared to shoot down any future planes that enters its airspace.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command scrambled fighter jets on Wednesday to identify and intercept four Russian military planes off Alaska. NORAD said the Russian aircraft remined in international airspace and did not enter US or Canadian sovereign airspace.
Bloomberg reported that Indian officials have again told the Trump administration that a significant reduction in Russian oil imports would require the US to instead allow crude purchases from sanctioned suppliers Iran and Venezuela.
WTI is on pace this week for its highest weekly gain in the past three months. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has ramped up a risk premium has been added into the market.