Oil Pricing Will Remain Volatile, Supported by Constrained Supply
January 18, 2023
An upbeat OPEC monthly report raising China oil demand by 510,000 bpd for 2023 helped to support price yesterday. Although OPEC left its oil growth forecast for 2023 at 2.22 million bpd, OPEC said a stronger economy could lead to upward oil demand revisions on the months to come. OPEC’s Secretary General said that the demand from India and China could compensate for shrinkage expected from developed counties. Separately he also said it is still early to assess the impact of sanctions on Russian oil supply.
Moody’s said oil prices will remain volatile but supported by constrained supply in 2023. It sees average crude prices this year remaining below last year’s $100 per barrel average for Brent crude. It said oil price trajectory this year remains uncertain and depends on economic outcomes in major economies. Moody’s said the decline in oil prices since June shows reduced market expectations for growth in oil demand amid heightened recession risks in the US and Europe and a short-term decline in demand from China. It stated that if economic weakness in China, Europe or the US persist into next year or worse, oil prices may weaken well below current levels of $80 per barrel. Alternatively, economic resilience in the US and Europe and stronger than expected post-COVID growth in China would support higher oil prices.
New York state manufacturing contracted much more than expected in January falling to a reading of -32.9 according to the Empire State Manufacturing Index. That is a bearish data point. The expectation was for a -7 so you can see this was a bad number. The prior reading was 11.2.
OPEC forecast for supply and demand to be in balance in the first quarter of 2023. The IEA is on the other side of the positive oil demand outlook for now. The IEA sees supply outstripping demand by 1 million barrel a day. Following a similar surplus in the final quarter of last year.