Oil prices projected to remain under pressure in 2026
December 2, 2025
Crude oil and refined fuels products price rose in yesterday’s trading mainly due to the missile attacks from Ukraine drones on two Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea, the US closing Venezuelan airspace and OPEC decided to leave output levels unchanged in Q1 of 2026. Global oil demand continues to rise despite negative demand news.
The EIA reported last Friday that total US crude oil production rose by 44,000 bpd in September 2025 up to a new US record of 13.84 million bpd.
According to a Reuters survey, oil prices are projected to remain under pressure in 2026, as increasing supplies eclipse modest demand growth, while geopolitical risks could cap deeper losses. The survey of 35 economists and analysts forecast that Brent crude oil would average $62.23 per barrel in 2026, down from October’s forecast of $63.15 per barrel. US WTI crude oil is projected to average$59.00 per barrel, below last month’s expectation of $60.23 per barrel. Analysts expect the oil market to see a surplus in 2026, with estimates ranging anywhere from 500,000 to 4.2 million bpd, compared with 190,000 bpd to 3.0 million bpd in the previous survey, Meanwhile, global oil demand is expected to grow by 500,000 to 1.2 million bpd in 2026.
From John Kemp. US manufacturers reported an increasingly widespread and prolonged downturn in activity last month. The ISM purchasing index slipped to 48.2 in November from 48.7 in October. The index has been below the 50 – point threshold dividing expanding activity from contracting for nine consecutive months since March. The shallow but prolonged drop in the index is consistent with a mid-cycle downturn, the second in quick succession after another mild but very long downturn from late 2022 all the way through 2024.
Chinese refineries were granted increased import quotas of 49 million barrels for December, which could stimulate demand for Russian and Asian crude oil and may have supported the moves higher in energy prices yesterday.