Oil markets await news of Russia-Ukraine negotiations with Trump
August 18, 2025
On Sunday night when trading opened the crude oil market sold off on the market’s perception that there was progress on a peace deal but has since recovered some of those losses and continues to trade in a tight range. The market will continue to monitor Ukraine’s President Zelensky’s and other European leaders’ meeting with US President Trump today in Washington.
President Trump has been optimistic that he can reach a deal Ukraine and convince Zelensky to concede some of Ukraine’s eastern land. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio state, “We are still a long way off.”
Energy traders will continue to watch all these events mostly for any increased sanctions or repercussion on those still buying Russian oil.
The active oil rigs count in the US has been declining since the Middle of March. It went from 487 in March to 412 in the latest report. The outlook is that rig count my hold flat here for some time. Z4 Energy Research notes Permian well completions are down 21% year-on-year, suggesting a meaningful slowdown in activity.
White House trade advisor Peter Navarro warned that India’s Russian crude purchases were funding Moscow’s war, indicating that tougher measures could be coming, which might add to the risk premium.