Most blacklisted Russian tankers have stopped transporting crude
February 14, 2025
According to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, about 60% of 94 of the active tankers blacklisted by the Biden administration last month for their involvement in the Russian oil trade have stopped transporting oil for Russia or anyone else. While there are no signs, yet that Russian’s output has been impacted by sanctions imposed on Russia, its tanker fleet is being disrupted. About half of the idled vessels observed by Bloomberg became inactive as soon as they were blacklisted. Despite these finding by Bloomberg, it appears Russia is doing more to comply with the OPEC quotas currently than the sanctions having the impact. When necessary, Russia will find alternative ways to export and sell, their crude oil. I will admit that there are plenty of others that feel the sanctions have directly impacted these idle ships.
The US producer prices, like consumer prices, increased in January keeping the concern about inflation in the forefront. This is helping to keep crude price in check. The annual PPI was 3.5% in January compared to 3.3% in December. Increasing prices will keep the Fed on the sidelines for now in terms of monetary policy and lowering interest rates.
The Wall Street Journal reported that China has floated a proposal to hold a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump to help end the Ukraine war.
Citi research said that a Russian-Ukrainian war resolution would shorten oil tanker routes. It said its base case forecast for Brent crude oil is $60-$65 per barrel for the second half of the year. It also forecast that non-OPEC+ supply growth is still set to outpace weak global demand growth from the second quarter through the fourth quarter.