Morgan Stanley Cuts Economic Forecast for China
August 18, 2023
Morgan Stanley is the latest among some of the major brokerages to cut China’s economic growth forecast for this year, following disappointing data from the country and worries over its property sector. Morgan Stanley now sees China’s GDP growing 4.7% this year, down from an earlier forecast of 5%.
UBS sees Brent crude oil at $95 per barrel and WTI crude oil at $91 per barrel by the end of December, up from the current $90 per barrel and $85 per barrel, respectively. It sees oil demand in August reaching 103 million bpd, a record high. It expects the global oil markets to be undersupplied by about 2 million bpd in August and 1.5 million bpd in September.
Crude oil and RBOB have pulled back and look to be consolidating. HO also corrected lower but has bounced from support. Look for the markets to try and build a base around current values and buy more time as the market continues to try and figure out the latest concerns about China, what the Fed will do with interest rates, and the outlook for oil production and demand.