Midwest Propane Stocks Drop
November 15, 2019
Propane inventories drew by 2.515 million barrels putting total stocks at 97.653 million barrels. The Midwest had stocks down 949,000 barrels and the Gulf had stocks down 873,000 barrels. Total stocks in the Midwest are now at 24.841 million barrels 1.980 million barrels less than last year. Gulf Coast stocks are at 60.673 million barrels which is 15.333 million more barrels than last year. Propane total stocks are still on the high side near 100 million barrels, but the current situation is not improving, and it is likely that the struggle to get product where the heaviest demand is will last at least for another month.
The DOE inventory report said that crude oil stock were up 2.22 million barrels putting total stocks at 449.001 million barrels which is 6.944 million barrels more than last year. US crude oil imports were down 327,000 barrel per day to a 23 year low of 5.75 million bpd. The reason this happened was the shutdown of that Keystone Pipeline. US crude oil production was up 200,000 bpd to a new weekly record high of 12.8 million bpd.
Gasoline stocks were up 1.86 million barrels putting total stocks at 219.090 million barrels which is 7.520 million barrels less than last year.
Distillate stocks were down 2.48 million barrels putting total stocks at 116.655 million barrels which is 2.613 million barrels less than last year. Overall the inventory report was called bearish. Energy markets did trade lower yesterday but this market is still stuck in a range looking for direction.
In its monthly report, OPEC points to a smaller surplus in the oil market next year although it still expects demand for its crude to fall as non-OPEC producers pump more, building a case to maintain supply cuts at a meeting next month. It is estimates demand for its oil will average 29.58 million bpd next year, down 1.12 million bpd on the year. This points to a surplus of about 70,000 bpd next year, less than its previous estimates. The fall in demand cold Imply the need for OPEC and its allies to maintain their supply cuts at their next meeting on December 5-6. While demand for OPEC crude will fall next year, OPEC cut it forecast for non-OPEC supply growth in 2020 to 2.17 million bpd, down 40,000 bpd from its previous forecast. OPEC said its output in October increased by 943,000 bpd to 29.65 million bpd.
Larry Kudlow has said that the negotiations for the phase 1 trade deal are down to the final stages.