Middle East ceasefire rumors cool crude market
November 26, 2024
The energy markets were down in yesterday’s trading on rumors of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon who has been negotiating on behalf of Hezbollah. WTI crude did trade under 70 dollars and settled below that as well. The trading volume was light and that could help the moves be a bit bigger than normal but like I said take any trading action this week with some degree of caution. With the ongoing conflicts the downside is limited, and these markets continue to trade in a range.
OPEC+ meets December 1 and the expectation is that they will continue to hold barrels back.
According to sources, the transition team for President elect Donald Trump is putting together a wide-ranging energy package to roll out within days of his taking office that would approve export permits for new liquefied natural gas projects and increase oil drilling off the US coast and on federal lands. The sources also stated that President elect Trump also plans to repeal some of his Democratic predecessor’s key climate legislation and regulations, such as tax credits for electric vehicles and new clean power plant standards that aim to phase out coal and natural gas.
Gunvor said late last week that it would begin a “temporary economic shutdown” at its 75,000 bpd Rotterdam refinery starting Monday November 25. The company said it was taking the action due to a “lack of prompt availability of commercially viable feedstock.”
The following is from JP Morgan. Crude is seeing some strength this morning after falling over $2 yesterday following news of an imminent ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Lebanese sources confirm that a final agreement has been reached, allowing 60 days for the IDF to withdraw and the Lebanese army to take over. The US will lead the oversight committee, as past UN peacekeeping efforts were unsuccessful. The Israeli cabinet will meet today to discuss and likely approve the agreement, with expectations for a positive outcome.