Major banks raise risk of US recession
April 8, 2025
Energy prices closed down in yesterday’s trading by 2.1%in a very volatile day. In the morning trading hours around 10:10 am EST oil prices rose sharply by about 3% after news reports that President Trump was considering a 90-day pause to tariffs, except on China. However, the White House quickly responded that the news was false and started on social media. Prices did sale off after this news.
Bearish for prices was Golman Sachs raising the chance of recession in the US to 45% over the next 12 months and JP Morgan increased the recession probability to 60% in the US and globally.
The energy markets have all fallen enough that the bear market corrective bounce is likely.
If and when prices rebound, they could see a strong move up but at this point all this must viewed as corrective and another push lower is still in the works. Th main concern for the energy markets is an economic recession which kill energy demand. The current price level has already raised concerns about US oil prodctuion and if prices go lower, it will reduce oil production.
The shipping analytics firm Kpler is reporting that China, the world’s largest LNG importer, has not imported any LNG from the United States for 60 days, the longest gap in five years. Kpler also reported that no LNG shipments are currently headed to China either.