JP Morgan lowers crude price forecast for 2025 & 2026
April 16, 2025
As we move closer to the Easter Holiday and a short work week for many, trading has been seeing less volume. With a lot of uncertainty surrounding the markets, sometimes the best strategy is to do nothing, and it appears many traders have taken off for a long holiday weekend. Energy markets are closed on Good Friday,, and our offices are closed too, so no contracts will be available that day.
Prices were higher to start out the day yesterday and then eased off and settled just above unchanged on the day. Barring some news these markets are very likely stuck in recent ranges until next week.
The API estimates were crude oil up 2.4 million barrels. gasoline down 3 million barrels and distillates down 3.2 million barrels.
The average estimate for today’s propane inventory update is for supplies to be up 1.32 million barrels. Over the last five years the average for this reporting week is a build of 604,000 barrels.
The following in from J.P.Morgan:
Having reached our year-end price forecast eight months early, we lower our 2025 Brent price forecast to $66 ($62 WTI), down from $73 per barrel. Additionally, we adjust our 2026 targets to $58 ($54 WTI), a slight decrease from the previous $61.
The price floor is now much lower. The Trump administration is actively pursuing lower oil prices, with intervention unlikely unless price drops to $50.
US shale producers will bear the brunt of these developments, with our projections indicating a cut of 115 rigs starting in July, leading to a contraction in US crude and condensate production in 2026.
Consequently, reduced shale activity will weaken the US associated natural gas supply, providing support to Henry Hub natural gas prices.