Israeli-Iranian conflict adds risk to oil markets
June 18, 2025
There are no energy markets on Thursday, June 19. It is a Federal holiday, and the markets are not open, so there are no forward contracts available that day. No Contract June 19, 2025.
Crude oil prices were up big again yesterday as the Israeli and Iranian conflict continues to escalate with no end in sight. The market is concerned about oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. The continuing missile exchange is raising the risk premium in the market.
A bit of bearish news as the IEA revised their 2025 oil supply growth forecast up 200,000 bpd while revising world oil demand growth down 20,000 bpd.
The market is now trying to figure out if the US will enter the current Iran and Israel conflict. This concern is supporting higher prices. This could be a push to try and get Iran back to the nuclear negotiations but if the US does become actively involved it certainly raises the stakes.
The API called crude stocks down 10.33 million barrels, gasoline inventories were down 202,000 barrels, and distillates were up 318,000 barrels.
The average estimate for today’s propane inventory is to see stocks build 2.4 million barrels.
The estimates from the Bloomberg survey for today’s DOE inventory update are crude oil inventory down 1.841, gasoline stocks up 883,000, and distillates up 724,000.
Platts reports that according to the Joint Maritime Information Center and UK Maritime Trade Operations there has been an increased number of electronic interference incidents in the Straits of Hormuz and Gulf waters since June 12th. Winward reports 928 ships, including 97 tankers and 110 cargo ships have experienced jamming of their GPS systems near Iranian oil terminals since June 12th.