Is the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire on shaky ground?
December 2, 2024
Energy prices are up here to start a new week and a new month on the news that China’s factory activity grew at its fastest rate in five months in November. Many are giving the government stimulus credit for finally taking effect.
Also reports that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is on shaky ground as both parties have accused the other of breaking the agreement. This has been supportive to prices.
OPEC+ pushed their meeting back a few days to December 5th.
The fear of increased sanctions on Iran has already caused a reaction to Chinese buying of Iranian crude oil. China has been consistently buying around 90% of Iranian crude oil exports so a change in buying by Chinese refiners could take its toll on Tehran. Additional tankers that haul Iranian oil have been placed on a sanctions list and the increased pressure of Trump in office could lead to more barrels stuck at sea.
According to Reuters survey, oil prices could stall in 2025 as economic weakness in China clouds the demand picture and ample global supplies outweigh support from an expected delay to a planned OPEC+ output increase.