Iran offers some concessions. Will it be enough?
February 23, 2026
Morningstar analysts believe the oil market has priced in a “higher probability of US intervention than political pundits,” per WSJ coverage. Despite the analysts at Morningstar thinking a limited strike on Iran’s military or nuclear sites is likely, impact to global oil flows are unlikely. Morningstar is holding a midcycle Brent forecast at 65 dollars per barrel.
New York City was hit by another snowstorm that has boosted regional heating oil demand and that offering support to prices.
The upside on energy prices has been limited by Iran offering concessions on its nuclear program to try and keep negotiations moving forward in what some say is a stall tactic as Iran prepares for a US military strike.
Headlines concerning Iran will be the market driver in the near term. I have seen the comment several times that crude oil would be trading in the fifties if it weren’t for the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and especially the Iran situation. Most outlooks still call for crude oil to be oversupplied in 2026.
Iran said it would ship out some of its enriched uranium, among other concessions in return for the US lifting economic sanctions and recognizing its ability to enrich uranium.
The US GDP for Q4 2025 was worse than expected at only 1.4%, down from an expected 2.8%. This was an economic disappointment and weighed on the price outlook.
President Trump has been addressing the fallout of his tariff plan being struck down by the Supreme Court, although he now plans to raise global tariffs to 15%, following the ruling on reciprocal tariffs.