International Air Transport Association Expects $84 Billion in Annual Losses
June 10, 2020
The API said the crude oil stocks were up 8.4 million barrels and the estimates for today’s DOE report are for crude to be down 1.7 million barrels. Stocks at Cushing, Ok were down 2.3 million barrels. Gasoline stocks were down 2.9 million barrels and the estimate for today is for them to be up 71,000 barrels according to the Reuters survey. Distillate stocks on the API report were up 4.3 million barrels and the outlook for today is for them to be up 3 million barrels.
Average estimate for today’s propane inventory update is for stocks to be up 1.6 million barrels.
Libya is a moving target and just after they got their two largest oil field reopened, they are closed again. Armed militants shut the oil field production causing a force majeure to be declared on oil exports. This news offers support to prices.
The US EIA reported their monthly short-term energy outlook (STEO) yesterday, which forecasted much lower oil supplies versus oil consumption, making the net result much lower world supplies. They also lowered their crude oil production forecast in the STEO by 121,886 bpd in 2020 and by 54,405 bpd for 2021. EIA said US crude oil production would be 11.689 million bpd in 2020 and 10.896 million bpd in 2021. US gasoline demand in 2020 is expected to fall by 1.18 million bpd to 8.09 million bpd but increase by 610,000 bpd to 8.7 million bpd in 2021. Distillate demand in 2020 is expected to fall by 420,000 bpd to 3.66 million bpd and increase by 210,000 bpd to 3.87 million bpd in 2021. EIA raised their average forecast for WTI crude oil price for 2020 up to $35.34 and up to $43.75 for 2021.
The International Air Transport Associations in an updated forecast released Tuesday said it forecast the impact of the virus on the airline industry will result in annual losses of $84 billion. It expects airline passenger traffic should rise by 55% in 2021, while remaining some 29% below its 2019 level.
Wood Mackenzie in a research note to clients this week said that “… in order to see a meaningful recovery in drilling and completion activity, we need to see prices north of $45 per barrel.
The April JOLTS ( Job opening and labor turnover survey) was not a good economic data point. The April JOTLS showed that there are just 9.9 million job openings in the country. This is more than five million less than March. That is the largest drop ever and the JOLTS hasn’t been this low since December 2014.