India Projected to Overtake EU as World’s Third Largest Energy Consumer by 2030
February 10, 2021
The EIA reported in its Short Term Energy Outlook that it cut its 2021 world oil demand growth forecast by 180,000 barrels per day to 5.38 million bpd. It raised its oil demand growth estimates for 2022 by 190,000 bpd to 3.5 million bpd. World oil demand in 2021 is forecast to total 97.67 million bpd and increase to 101.17 million bpd. Total world oil production is estimated to increase by 3.08 million bpd to 97.29 million bpd in 2021 and by 3.48 million bpd to 100.77 million bpd in 2022. OPEC oil output is forecast to increase by 1.56 million bpd in 2021 to 27.15 million bpd and by 1.05 million bpd to 28.2 million bpd in 2022. The EIA cut its outlook for US crude oil production in 2021, with expected output set to average 11.02 million bpd for the year. In 2022, US crude output is expected to increase by 510,000 bpd to 11.53 million bpd compared with expectations for an increase of 390,000 bpd. The EIA lowered its demand estimates, stating that US petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption will increase by 1.35 million bpd to 19.43 million bpd in 2021, compared with an estimated 1.45 million bpd increase forecast in January. The EIA forecast global consumption will average 97.7 million bpd for 2021, up 5.4 million bpd and expects demand to increase by 3.5 million bpd in 2022 to average 101.2 million bpd.
The International Energy Agency said India will make up the biggest share of energy demand growth at 25% over the next two decades, as it overtakes the European Union as the world’s third-biggest energy consumer by 2030.
Apple Mobility data showed that US driving activity moved nearly 1% higher last week but remained around 3% behind year ago levels.
S&P Global Platts estimates OPEC and its allies boosted their crude oil production for the seventh straight month in January seeing production grow by a collective 440,000 bpd. The production gains in January came from Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. Platts found that Russia posted the largest production increase by raising output by 170,000 bpd making it the worst quota violator in the OPEC+ group. Production from Iran and Venezuela which are outside the production agreement also saw production increases in January increasing by a combined 180,000 bpd.
According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia is squeezing supply in February and March on top of cuts by producers within OPEC+, prompting forecast of a supply deficit this year.
The API inventory report said that crude oil stocks were down 3.5 million barrels and the estimates for today’s DOE numbers from the Reuters’ survey are for them to be up 985,000. Gasoline stocks on the API were up 4.8 million barrels and the outlook for today is for them to be up 1.8 million barrels. Distillates on the API were down 487,000 barrels and the estimates for today are for them to be down 790,000 barrels.
The average estimates for today’s propane inventory update is for them to be drawn down by 3.45 million barrels.
WTI crude prices have come a long ways from the coronavirus crash low of negative $40 dollars per barrel to near $58 dollar per barrel currently with $60 dollars in site after such a long run up traders appear set to test that $60 dollar level.