IMF Says Global Economy Headed in Right Direction
July 26, 2023
The average estimates from the Bloomberg survey for today’s DOE inventory update are for crude oil inventories to decline 2.123 million barrels, gasoline inventories down 1.591 million barrels, and distillates down 822,000 barrels.
The API inventory number released yesterday afternoon called crude oil inventoried up 1.3 million barrels, gasoline down 1.0 million barrels, and distillates up 1.6 million barrels.
I have been seeing more comments about a possible recession, but traders seem less concerned at this point and are buying into the idea of more energy demand. The IMF said the global economy appears headed in the right direction. China is also again promising more stimulus for some segments of their economy. The market has also been getting a good dose of comments about tighter supply of crude in the back half of the year also offering support.
The July S&P manufacturing PMI came in at 49. This was up from 46.3 and the market was looking for 46.7. The services PMI came in at 52 against estimates of 53.1 and the previous of 53.2. The commentaries pointed out that the US business activity slowed to a 5-month low in July due to slow service sector growth. That was the slight decrease in the index to 52. Other numbers were decent and doing what they could to keep those looking for a recession at bay. Remember a number above 50 indicates growth. Also offering some positive data was the University of Michigan consumer confidence which came in at 117. The market was looking for just 112 and the previous was 109.7.
Saudia Arabia reported its crude exports were down 40% in May from the same time last year.
Reported on Monday in the Euro Zone, business activity shrank more than expected in July from slower service sector growth just like the US and falling output from factories.
The average estimate for today’s propane inventory update is for inventories to build by 2.2 million barrels.